Fiscal Dependence on Kazakhstan’s National Fund: Macroeconomic Determinants and Scenario Assessment
https://doi.org/10.47703/2789-8253-2026-2-200-220
Abstract
The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan is essential to stabilizing public finances and ensuring oil revenues for future generations of Kazakhstan.
The aim of this study is to identify the key macroeconomic determinants of transfers from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan and to assess their sensitivity to external and domestic macroeconomic shocks using econometric modeling and scenario analysis.
The empirical base covers 2001-2024 and includes annual data from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Bureau of National Statistics, and the World Bank. The study uses regression analysis with lagged explanatory variables, diagnostic tests (Breusch–Godfrey, Zharko, and Breusch–Pagan), and scenario modeling. The results of the extended model showed that the price of Brent crude oil is negatively related to the volume of transfers: the coefficient was -9.152 at p = 0.002. Receipts to the National Fund, the cost of oil production, and inflation have a positive, statistically significant relationship with transfers: the corresponding coefficients were 1,047, 8,306, and 21,651. Scenario calculations showed that a 10 % decrease in the Brent price increases the forecast value of the transfer logarithm from 14.465 to 15.430, while a 10 % increase in the price reduces it to 13.593. The findings emphasize that better fiscal rules should be implemented to address procyclical withdrawals, transparency should be increased, and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth management system should be maintained over time.
Keywords
Macroeconomic,
Emerging Economy,
Fiscal Sustainability,
Fiscal Policy,
Oil Production,
Oil Price,
Transfer Policy
Supporting agencies: This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP23488218)
About the Authors
Zh. Temerbulatova
Almaty Management University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Zhansaya Temerbulatova, PhD
Almaty
B. Mukhamediyev
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Bulat Mukhamediyev, Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Professor
Almaty
A. Mukhamediyeva
Almaty Management University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Aliya Mukhamediyeva, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor
Almaty
A. Sabikenova
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Aidana Sabikenova, Master’s Student
Almaty
References
1. Bagnall, A. E., & Truman, E. M. (2013). Progress on sovereign wealth fund transparency and accountability: An updated SWF scoreboard (Policy Brief No. PB13-19). Peterson Institute for International Economics. Retrieved April 10, 2026 from https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/progress-sovereign-wealth-fund-transparency-and-accountability-updated
2. Balding, C. (2012). Sovereign Wealth Funds: The New Intersection of Money and Politics. Oxford University Press. doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199842902.001.0001
3. Balasundharam, V., Kayastha, A., & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2023). Inflation indexation in public finances: A global dataset on current practices (IMF Working Paper No. 23/264). International Monetary Fund. doi: 10.5089/9798400261466.001
4. Barnett, S., & Ossowski, R. (2002). Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Producing Countries. IMF Working Paper No. 02/177. doi: 10.5089/9781451858884.001
5. Bems, R., & de Carvalho Filho, I. (2009). Current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources. IMF Working Paper No. 09/33. doi: 10.5089/9781451871807.001
6. Bureau of National Statistics. (2025). Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved April 10, 2026 from https://stat.gov.kz/en
7. Collier, P., & Goderis, B. (2012). Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation. European Economic Review, 56(6), 1241–1260. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.04.002
8. Daribekova, A., Daribekova, N., Togaibayeva, L., & Daribekov, S. (2024). National Fund in the Formation and Use of Financial Resources of Kazakhstan. TRUDY UNIVERSITETA, 2(95), 375–381. doi: 10.52209/1609-1825_2024_2_375
9. Dodonov, V. Yu. (2021). Devaluation’s Impact on the Formation of Kazakhstan Government Budget: The Factor of the National Fund Investment Income. Financial Journal, 13(3), 116–131. doi: 10.31107/2075-1990-2021-3-116-131 (In Russ.)
10. Frankel, J. A., Vegh, C. A., & Vuletin, G. (2013). On graduation from fiscal procyclicality. Journal of Development Economics, 100(1), 32–47. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.07.001
11. Gelb, A. (1988). Oil windfalls: blessing or curse? New York: Oxford University Press.
12. Humphreys, M., Sachs, J. D., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2007). Escaping the Resource Curse. New York: Columbia University Press.
13. Kansoy, F., & Stasiulaitis, D. (2025). Green shields: The role of ESG in uncertain time. arXiv. doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2506.02143
14. Lopez-Murphy, P., Villafuerte, M., & Ossowski, R. (2010). Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper No. 10/251. doi: 10.5089/9781455209514.001
15. Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the resource curse. The Economic Journal, 116(508), 1–20. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01045.x
16. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2025). Reports on receipts and use of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved April 10, 2026, from https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/minfin/documents/1?lang=ru
17. National Bank of Kazakhstan. (2025). Results of management of foreign currency assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved April 10, 2026, from https://nationalbank.kz/ru/page/NF-investment-management
18. NBIM (2026). Norges Bank Investment Management. Retrieved April 10, 2026 from https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/about-the-fund/
19. Ossowski, R., Daniel, J., Barnett, S., & Davis, J. (2001). Stabilization and Savings Funds for Nonrenewable Resources. IMF Occasional Paper No. 205. doi: 10.5089/9781589060197.084
20. Papyrakis, E., & Parcero, O. J. (2022). The psychology of mineral wealth: Empirical evidence from Kazakhstan. Resources Policy, 77, 102706. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102706
21. Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4–6), 827–838. doi: 10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00125-8
22. Sugawara, N. (2014). From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries. IMF Working Paper No. 14/43. doi: 10.5089/9781475515275.001
23. Van der Ploeg, F. (2011). Natural resources: Curse or blessing? Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2), 366–420. doi: 10.1257/jel.49.2.366
24. World Bank. (2025). World Bank Open Data. Retrieved April 10, 2026 from https://data.worldbank.org/
Review
For citations:
Temerbulatova Zh., Mukhamediyev B., Mukhamediyeva A., Sabikenova A. Fiscal Dependence on Kazakhstan’s National Fund: Macroeconomic Determinants and Scenario Assessment. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies. 2026;70(2):200-220. https://doi.org/10.47703/2789-8253-2026-2-200-220
Views:
25
JATS XML
Email this article 