ejebsEurasian Journal of Economic and Business StudiesНазвание журнала на русском2789-82532789-8261University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev LLP10.47703/2789-8253-2026-2-200-220ejebs-289Research ArticleСтатьиFiscal Dependence on Kazakhstan’s National Fund: Macroeconomic Determinants and Scenario Assessmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-0948TemerbulatovaZh.

Zhansaya Temerbulatova, PhD

Almaty

zh.temerbulatova@almau.edu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1490-302XMukhamediyevB.

Bulat Mukhamediyev, Doc. Sc. (Econ.), Professor

Almaty

bmukhamediyev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0359-6052MukhamediyevaA.

Aliya Mukhamediyeva, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor

Almaty

aliya.mukhamediyeva@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0000-4493-6669SabikenovaA.

Aidana Sabikenova, Master’s Student

Almaty

aidanasabikenova@gmail.comAlmaty Management UniversityKazakhstanAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan202605072026702200220Copyright © Temerbulatova Z., Mukhamediyev B., Mukhamediyeva A., Sabikenova A., 20262026Temerbulatova Z., Mukhamediyev B., Mukhamediyeva A., Sabikenova A.Temerbulatova Z., Mukhamediyev B., Mukhamediyeva A., Sabikenova A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ejebs.uib.kz/jour/article/view/289

   The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan is essential to stabilizing public finances and ensuring oil revenues for future generations of Kazakhstan.

   The aim of this study is to identify the key macroeconomic determinants of transfers from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan and to assess their sensitivity to external and domestic macroeconomic shocks using econometric modeling and scenario analysis.

   The empirical base covers 2001-2024 and includes annual data from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Bureau of National Statistics, and the World Bank. The study uses regression analysis with lagged explanatory variables, diagnostic tests (Breusch–Godfrey, Zharko, and Breusch–Pagan), and scenario modeling. The results of the extended model showed that the price of Brent crude oil is negatively related to the volume of transfers: the coefficient was -9.152 at p = 0.002. Receipts to the National Fund, the cost of oil production, and inflation have a positive, statistically significant relationship with transfers: the corresponding coefficients were 1,047, 8,306, and 21,651. Scenario calculations showed that a 10 % decrease in the Brent price increases the forecast value of the transfer logarithm from 14.465 to 15.430, while a 10 % increase in the price reduces it to 13.593. The findings emphasize that better fiscal rules should be implemented to address procyclical withdrawals, transparency should be increased, and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth management system should be maintained over time.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.