An Assessment of Financial Stability of Artificial Intelligence-based Monitoring Project in Kazakhstan
https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v69i2.507
Abstract
Today, public-private partnership (hereinafter – PPP) projects, which apply digital technologies and artificial intelligence (hereinafter – AI), are becoming essential for improving infrastructure delivery and transparency. This study aims to assess the financial stability and risks of the Sergek project, an AI-based traffic video monitoring system in Almaty implemented under the PPP model with fixed government payments. The study examines the macroeconomic and operational risks of the project using system dynamics (SD) modeling. The data inputs for the SD model were collected from project documentation, national economic statistics, and expert interviews. In the baseline scenario, with a stable exchange rate (0.1% growth per year) and timely government payments, the internal rate of return (hereinafter – IRR) increases from -1.0% in 2021 to 0.37% by 2026. In an alternative scenario with an annual devaluation of 20%, the IRR only reaches 0.3%, and the break-even point is delayed by one year. However, the return significantly declined under scenarios simulating currency depreciation, underscoring the AI project’s sensitivity to external economic risks. This study provides methodological and practical contributions to the field, specifically within the contracts of availability-payment mechanisms in emerging economies like Kazakhstan. The proposed simulation model is an adaptable tool for stakeholders to forecast investment outcomes and enhance project monitoring and control based on AI applications in PPPs.
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence,
Public-Private Partnerships,
Digital Business,
Sergek,
Financial Stability,
Project Financing,
Investment Risk
Supporting agencies: This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (grant No. AP23488488).
About the Authors
Timur Narbaev
Kazakh-British Technical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
PhD, Email: timur.narbaev@gmail.com
Bauyrzhan Aitkhozha
Andrey Samoilov
Institute of Advanced Research and Sustainable Development, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
PhD candidate, Email: an_samoilov@kbtu.kz
Gabriel Castelblanco
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For citations:
Narbaev T., Aitkhozha B., Samoilov A., Castelblanco G. An Assessment of Financial Stability of Artificial Intelligence-based Monitoring Project in Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies. 2025;69(2):95–108. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v69i2.507
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