Economic-Mathematical Assessment and Scenario Analysis of Agricultural Enterprise Efficiency in Kazakhstan
https://doi.org/10.47703/2789-8253-2026-3-5-25
Abstract
Improving the efficiency of agricultural enterprises in Kazakhstan requires a comprehensive accounting of production, financial, technological, and risk factors, since an increase in nominal output does not always reflect a real improvement in performance. The aim of this study is to develop an economic-mathematical model for the quantitative assessment and forecasting of the effective development of agricultural enterprises in Kazakhstan amid a growing innovation-driven economy. The information base was compiled using official statistical data of Kazakhstan for 2010-2025 on gross agricultural output, volume indices, gross harvest and yield of grain and leguminous crops, the introduction of water-saving technologies, and technical modernization of the industry. The methodological framework combines indicator standardization, entropy weighting, an innovation- and risk-augmented production function, an optimization formulation for resource allocation, and scenario-based forecasting of an integral efficiency index. The results showed that in 2019-2025, nominal agricultural output increased by 88.5%, while the real physical volume increased by about 24%. In 2025, the yield of grain and leguminous crops reached 16.31 c/ha, exceeding the previous year’s level by 7.2%. In the innovation scenario, the profit of a conditional enterprise increases by about 28.6%, and the return on costs increases from 53.85% to 67.22%. By 2030, the value of the integral index in a given innovation scenario reaches 140.26 points versus 110.41 points in the inertial scenario. The results obtained can be used in intra-company planning, evaluation of investment decisions, and monitoring the effectiveness of agricultural policy.
About the Authors
A. Bektaev
Turan-Astana University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Alibek Bektaev – PhD student
Astana
M. Raikhan
Republican Research Institute for Labor Protection MLSPP RK
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Meiir Raikhan – Master of Economics, Senior Research Fellow
Astana
S. Bespalyy
Toraighyrov University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Sergey Bespalyy – Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Professor
Pavlodar
A. Mussina
Toraighyrov University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Alma Mussina – PhD, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Professor
Pavlodar
L. Salykova
Astana IT University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Leila Salykova – PhD, Professor
Astana
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For citations:
Bektaev A., Raikhan M., Bespalyy S., Mussina A., Salykova L. Economic-Mathematical Assessment and Scenario Analysis of Agricultural Enterprise Efficiency in Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies. 2026;70(3):5-25. https://doi.org/10.47703/2789-8253-2026-3-5-25
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