Incomes of the Population of Kazakhstan: Differentiation and Forecast
https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v2i67.289
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to forecast and determine the main factors affecting the growth of per capita income of the population of Kazakhstan. The paper is devoted to an urgent problem – differentiation and forecast of the income level of the population of Kazakhstan. In the study, based on the results of a survey conducted as part of the study in 2021, 4 conditionally defined social groups were formed according to the subjective integral assessment of respondents' own income. Based on the formed decile groups of respondents, the Gini coefficient was calculated and compared with official statistics. The method of statistical forecasting was used in the preparation of the article. With the help of factor forecasting, the system of the interrelation of per capita monetary incomes of the population with other factors is modelled.
Keywords
Economic,
Economic Growth,
Income of Population,
Income Inequality,
Differentiation,
Forecast,
Kazakhstan
Supporting agencies: This study was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. funded this research AP09260228)
About the Authors
Laura Ashirbekova
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Acting Associate Professor, Email: turar200480@mail.ru
Khalima Sansyzbaeva
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Professor, Email: gns1981@mail.ru
Askar Askerov
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Senior Lecturer, Email: askerov.askar@gmail.com
Monika Grabowska
Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, Wroclaw
Poland
Poland
PhD, Email: monika.grabowska@ue.wroc.pl
References
1. Aiyar, S., & Ebeke, C. (2020). Inequality of opportunity, inequality of income and economic growth. ERN: Wealth, 034. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484396988.001
2. Abaidullaeva, M. M. (2022). Modern manifestations of intra-country economic inequality on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Young scientist, 15 (410), 77-82. (in Russ.)
3. Barro, R. J. (2000). Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009850119329
4. Breunig, R., & Majeed, O. (2020). Inequality, poverty, and economic growth. International Economics, 161, 83–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.005
5. Bureau of National Statistics (2023). [cited March 20, 2023]. Available: http://www.stat.gov.kz (in Russ.)
6. Chancel, L., & Piketty, T. (2021). Global Income Inequality, 1820–2020: The persistence and mutation of extreme inequality. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(6), 3025–3062. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab047
7. Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2022). Comprehensive plan «Program for increasing incomes of the population until 2029». [сited March 10, 2023]. Available: URL: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P2200000218 (in Russ.)
8. Dmitrichenko, L., Karpukhno, I., & Guchmazova, G. (2021). Fiscal policy of the state in regulating the income of the population. Bulletin of the Institute of Economic Research, 2(22), 154-162. (in Russ.)
9. Faggian, A., Michelangeli, A., & Tkach, K. (2023). Income inequality in Europe: Reality, perceptions, and hopes. Research in Globalization, 6, 100118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100118
10. Forecast of socio-economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2023–2027. Оfficial website of the Ministry of National Economy. [сited March 20, 2023]. Available: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/economy/documents/details/26451?lang=ru (in Russ.)
11. Hoebel, J., Michalski, N., Diercke, M., Hamouda, O., Wahrendorf, M., Dragano, N., & Nowossadeck, E. (2021). Emerging socio-economic disparities in COVID-19-related deaths during the second pandemic wave in Germany. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 113, 344-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.10.037
12. Joyce, R., & Xu, X., (2019). Inequalities in the twenty-first century: introducing the IFS Deaton Review. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, 33. https://doi.org/10.1920/BN.IFS.2019.IDRBN1
13. Jumambayev, S., Dzhulaeva, A., Baimukhanova, S., Ilyashova, G., & Dosmbek, A. (2022). Globalne nierówności dochodów – studium przypadku krajów OECD i Kazachstanu. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 25(4), 179–203. https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.35
14. Kirton, J., & Larionova, M. (2012). To Growing Together from Growing Apart: G20 Governance for More Equitable Economic Growth. G20 Research Group., University of Toronto, International Organizations Research Institute, National Research University Higher School of Economics, 43.
15. Mukhamediev, B.M. (2016). Economic stratification and income inequality in Kazakhstan: monograph. Almaty, Kazakh University. (in Russ.)
16. Macroeconomic review (2021). Centras Securities. [cited March 30, 2023]. Available: https://cesec.kz/sites/default/files/files_pdf/makro.obzor_rk_za_2021.pdf?ysclid=lh54w344gq194658437
17. Plümper, T., & Neumayer, E. (2020). The pandemic predominantly hits poor neighbourhoods? SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 fatalities in German districts. European Journal of Public Health, 30(6), 1176-1180. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaa168
18. Rudakov, M. F. (2022). Forecasting the national economy: a course of lectures. Groki, BGSHA. (in Russ.)
19. Su, D., Alshehri, K., & Pagán, J. (2022). Income inequality and the disease burden of COVID-19: Survival analysis of data from 74 countries. Preventive Medicine Reports, 27, 101828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2022.101828
20. Turkebayeva, K., Bekturganova, M., Sabden, O., Dauliyeva, G., & Kenzhegulova, G. (2022). Assessment of the relationship between inequality, income and economic growth in the regions of Kazakhstan. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(2), 511-521. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(2).2022.42
21. Turkebayeva, K.T., & Wolff, С. (2022). The impact of interregional and country inequality on the dynamics of economic growth in Kazakhstan. Economics: the Strategy and Practice, 17(2), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2022-2 -6-16
22. Vaskina, A.V. (2016). Vaskina A.B. Multiple regression and some of its applications. Natural sciences - the basis of the present and the foundation for the future: Materials of the annual scientific and practical conference of the North Caucasus Federal University "University Science - to the region". Stavropol, Publishing House of KFU. (in Russ.)
23. Vaskina, A.V, & Naats, V.I. (2017). Modeling and computational experiment in the problem of forecasting the average per capita income of the population based on the methods of correlation and regression analysis. Physical and mathematical sciences. Science, innovation, technology, 1, 39-52. (in Russ.)
24. UN (2022). World social report 2020 inequality in a rapidly changing world. [cited April 20, 2023]. Available: URL: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2020/ 01/World-Social-Report-2020-Full Report.pdf
25. World Bank Group (2018). A new growth model for the formation of a stable middle class. Comprehensive socio-economic analysis for Kazakhstan. [cited March 10, 2023]. Available: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/664531525455 037169/kazakhstan-systematic-country-diagnostic-a-new-growth-model-for-building-a-secure-middle-class
Review
For citations:
Ashirbekova L., Sansyzbaeva Kh., Askerov A., Grabowska M. Incomes of the Population of Kazakhstan: Differentiation and Forecast. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies. 2023;67(2):119-132. https://doi.org/10.47703/ejebs.v2i67.289
Views:
38
JATS XML
Email this article 