ejebsEurasian Journal of Economic and Business StudiesНазвание журнала на русском2789-82532789-8261University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev10.47703/2789-8253-2026-3-26-51ejebs-308Research ArticleСтатьиFinancial Contagion System Dynamics Modeling: The Case of Mongolia, 2024–2050https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9984-6453KhurelbaatarA.

Ankhbileg Khurelbaatar – PhD Candidate

Ulaanbaatar

ankhbileg_kh@num.edu.mnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3559-4246ChuluunbaatarA.

Ankhbayar Chuluunbaatar – PhD, Associate Professor

Ulaanbaatar

ankhbayar.ch@num.edu.mnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9431-506XNamsraiB.

Batnasan Namsrai – PhD, Professor, Dean of Business School

Ulaanbaatar

batnasan@num.edu.mnBusiness School, National University of MongoliaMongolia2026041020267032651Copyright © Khurelbaatar A., Chuluunbaatar A., Namsrai B., 20262026Khurelbaatar A., Chuluunbaatar A., Namsrai B.Khurelbaatar A., Chuluunbaatar A., Namsrai B.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ejebs.uib.kz/jour/article/view/308

Mongolia’s high dependence on mineral exports, external financing, and China’s economic environment increases the vulnerability of the national financial system to cross-border external shocks. The aim of the study is to develop and calibrate a model of the systemic dynamics of Mongolia’s financial contagion, enabling assessment of the transmission channels of external financial shocks, the consequences of major infrastructure projects, and the long-term dynamics of financial and macroeconomic indicators in 2024-2050. The research methodology includes system-dynamic modeling, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. The initial information base consists of official data from the National Statistical Office of Mongolia, the Bank of Mongolia, the Mongolian Stock Exchange, and the Ministry of Finance for 2010-2024. The basic scenario, three scenarios for the implementation of individual megaprojects, the scenario of their simultaneous implementation and the scenario of repeated external shocks are considered; uncertainty is estimated based on 500 Monte Carlo iterations. The results show that in the baseline scenario, the real gross domestic product increases from 60.0 trillion tugriks in 2024 to 108.9 trillion tugriks in 2050, or 1.8 times. External shocks lead to a decrease in the stock index of 10-15% and foreign direct investment by 4-5 billion US dollars, but their long-term impact is mostly offset over ten years. The results obtained confirm the expediency of the phased implementation of megaprojects and the strengthening of the stabilization mechanisms of Mongolia’s financial policy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.