ejebsEurasian Journal of Economic and Business StudiesНазвание журнала на русском2789-82532789-8261University of International Business named after K. Sagadiyev LLP10.47703/2789-8253-2026-1-19-35ejebs-197Research ArticleСтатьиScenario Analysis of Risks and Opportunities in Kazakhstan’s Industrial Transition to Carbon Neutralityhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5872-0201KhuanyshLena

PhD student

Astana

lenahuanys@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-5123DauletkhanovaZhanar

Doctor of Finance

Astana

zhanar021@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-5624-7495YerniyazovaAliya

PhD, Associate Professor

Uralsk

aliya-erniyazova@mail.ruEsil UniversityKazakhstanTuran-Astana UniversityKazakhstanNAO West Kazakhstan University named after M. UtemisovKazakhstan202602042026701Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies1935Copyright © Khuanysh L., Dauletkhanova Z., Yerniyazova A., 20262026Khuanysh L., Dauletkhanova Z., Yerniyazova A.Khuanysh L., Dauletkhanova Z., Yerniyazova A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ejebs.uib.kz/jour/article/view/197

The transition to carbon neutrality represents a strategic imperative for large industrial companies in Kazakhstan in the context of global climate challenges and increasingly stringent environmental requirements. The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated risk and opportunity management framework for industrial decarbonization in Kazakhstan based on scenario modelling and expert assessment. The study uses a mixed methodological approach combining quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis. The empirical basis of the study was made up of sectoral data on greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakhstan’s industry for 2015-2024, official statistics from government agencies, corporate non-financial reports, as well as the results of 32 semi-structured expert interviews with representatives of industrial companies, government regulators and international organizations. The results of the study show that Kazakhstan’s industrial CO2 emissions increased 18.1% from 224.7 million tonnes (2015) to 265.4 million tons (2024), with metallurgy accounting for 35.9%, energy 28.1%, oil and gas 22.8%, and chemicals 13.4%. Scenario analysis shows that under the business-as-usual scenario, emissions could increase to 322.5 million tons of CO2 by 2050, while the moderate scenario reduces emissions to 102.3 million tons (55% compared to 2024), and the ambitious scenario to 35 million tons (-84%). This research extends sustainability theory by demonstrating how to transition economy characteristics-legacy infrastructure, resource dependence, institutional capacity-shape decarbonization pathways, providing actionable insights for climate policy formulation and corporate strategy in resource-rich developing nations.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.